Will Iraq be another El Salvador

A question making the rounds among the pundits and bloggers, is whether the upcoming election in Iraq will resemblethe 1982 election in El Salvador, which dramatically changed the direction of that country. Patrick Ruffini links to a Wall Street Journal article on this subject and, even better, provides some paragraphs on the El Salvador election from Ronald Reagan. Reagan points out that the courageous voters who turned out in defiance of rebel threats, who Reagan calls the "silent suffering people", exposed the rebels, labeled "freedom fighters" in western media, for what they really were.

As bad as the situation was in El Salvador, it's even worse in Iraq. The internal conflicts are not just political, but are further fueled by religious and tribal differences. This may work in favor of the movement towards democracy. The majority of Iraqi citizens, with decades of experience under Baathist regimes to guide them, should have no doubt that the insurgents are not interested in their well-being. It remains to be seen, however, whether the threat of violence and despondency over the future will keep voters hiding in their homes or whether, like the voters in El Salvador 23 years ago, and those of Afghanistan just months ago, they will brave bombs and bullets and come out to cast their vote. Patrick seems to think that this could still be the "turning of the corner" that we are hoping for. I hope he's right.