The second Bush term, a move to centrism?

That's the speculation in this Michael Hirsh article in Newsweek. He reasons that Bush (and the U.S.) is about as extended internationally as he can be, and will need to take a move conciliatory and multi-lateral tack on other fronts. He will want to win back some of the respect and goodwill that the U.S. has spent in the Iraq expedition, if only to shore up his place in history. I think this is an accurate assessment, at least over the longer term. In the next couple of months I expect Bush will spend whatever capital he has gained with his victory on crushing the insurgency in Iraq. There is a tough fight in front of us, or more accurately, in front of the Marines, and it is best to get that over with quickly. The best-case scenario would be a tough, potentially painful but conclusive fight in Fallujah and other insurgent strongholds, a nervous but arguably successful election in Iraq, and four years to continue rebuilding that country and rebuilding our foreign policy. Delay and a "nuanced" approach in Iraq buys us nothing at this point, so we might as well swallow the medicine quickly and get on with the recovery. Expect things to get hot in very soon.

I'll be very pleasantly surprised if Bush moves at all towards the center on domestic issues. He has a stronger majority in Congress but not a dominant one, and has to be concerned about the mid-term election in two years. He also needs to consider what his party runs on if the war in Iraq fades from the front page, as we all hope it will. I would expect some movement on Social Security and health care, and perhaps a little conciliation on some of the more divisive social issues, notably stem cell research. The White House might relax its opposition to some environmental issues that are broadly supported, like air and water quality, will hold the line an other conservation efforts. I would hope that we might see some constructive involvement on climate change concerns but I'm not expecting it. Unless we have some disastrously warm summers or other obvious climatic disasters there is little reason for them to move on this issue.

I'll be very curious to see what changes are made in the cabinet and key White House staff in coming months. Bush has built a very strong and loyal base for the Republicans with the social conservatives, but was able to hold onto the fiscal conservatives and Republican centrists this time largely because of the weakness of the opposition candidate. His father ran against a skilled centrist and lost those swing voters. If Bush "43" is aiming to strengthen his party and help it hold onto power, he would do well to bring some centrists into prominent positions, even better if they are black, female, or strong in the "blue states" (Rudi, are you out there?).

It was an interesting election, and will be an interesting four years.